Yuri Panchul - Макфол для чайников / McFaul for Dummies

Приглашения - только для студентов. Никаких старых советских антисоветчиков в потертых пиджаках и с солженицынскими бородками. Никаких прокуренных пост-бальзаковских журналисток с томиками Айн Рэнд и Славоя Жижека в руках. Только студенты и студентки со студенческими билетами!

"Но", - спросят тут меня антисоветчики и прокуренные журналистки, - "откуда студенты могут узнать про идеи товарища Макфола, чтобы задавать ему интересные вопросы? Из 140 символов твиттерной строки?"

На это решение есть у меня. Я методически прочитал от корки до корки последнюю книжку Макфола про продвижение демократии и готов ее пересказать в формате, доступном даже индивидуалам, еще не сдавшим ЕГЭ.

Итого.

Материал книги Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should and How We Can (Hoover Studies in Politics, Economics, and Society) by Michael McFaul - состоит из пяти типов информации:

1. Чистосердечное перечисление мистером Макфолом аргументов его политических оппонентов. После каждой мысли оппонента, который считал, что он уже испепелил теории Макфола и развеял пепел по ветру, мистер Макфол встает, отряхивается, говорит "хе-хе-хе", поправляет галстук и произносит "Тем не менее, США нужно продолжать продвигать демократию в других странах".

2. Всевозможные исторические анекдоты, которыми можно вызвать интерес девушек во время парти. Если соединить все анекдоты в одну сюжетную линию, то получится нечто типа: "Сначало не было ничего, только автократии. Потом появилась первая Демократия - Америка! Точнее, только северные штаты США, ибо даже южные штаты были автократиями. Гражданская Война в США была не хухры-мухры, а Первым в Истории Regime Change (!) (термин, ставший популярным в потоке пропаганды второй войны в Ираке)." Даже участие США в Первой Мировой комрад Макфол позиционирует как продвижение Демократии. Да. Гегель с Духом Истории, Маркс с Призраком Коммунизма и Макфол с Шествием Демократии.

3. Всевозможные рассуждения о последовательности шагов "модернизация -> либерализация -> демократизация" или наоборот. Рассуждения о вероятности превращения демократического, но слабого государства, в рассадник терроризма, источник войн и т.д. Намеки на нежелательность повторения физически неприятного для Макфола сценария Китая (модернизация без демократизации) с другими странами.

4. Предложения о методах демократизации в других странах. Ядерный Армагеддон Макфол к счастью отвергает, как и другие варианты военного вмешательства. Макфол приводит данные, что несколько десятков случаев демократизации военными методами привели к повышению градуса антиамериканизма в неуспешно демократизированных странах, а успехи такого рода вмешательств можно пересчитать по пальцам (Германия да Япония). Далее, как истинный гуманитарий, Макфол предлагает перечислять деньги, больше денег, неправительственным организациям и (насколько я интерпретировал его намеки) не давать ни цента на поощрение модернизации без демократизации (Сколково не в счет, оно безопасно).

5. Академические мечты о создании новой бюрократической структуры, своего рода правозащитно-гуманитарного Пентагона (Department of Development and Democracy), но только по продвижению демократии, и чтобы гуманитарные Руматы имели тот же чин, что и военные. И повысить расходы на продвижение демократии на два порядка - с $1.5B до сравнимого с военным бюджетом $696B. Я знаю, что это звучит дико, но см. цитату:

The Secretary of Defense is a powerful cabinet-level official in charge of the financial resources, know-how, staff, and authority to destroy autocratic regimes hostile to the United States once the political decision to do so has been made. Yet, there is no equivalent position in the U.S. government to mobilize the necessary intellectual and physical resources to help construct democratic regimes friendly to the United States in the wake of autocratic collapse or destruction

For FY 2008, the U.S. military budget hovered around $500 billion, not including supplements for Iraq and Afghanistan that brought the total to about $696 billion.110 For the same year, U.S. spending on democracy promotion was estimated to be only $1.5 billion,111 while total spending on foreign assistance as a whole amounted to roughly $20 billion.112 By comparison, under the Marshall Plan, the United State spent roughly $110 billion a year for European reconstruction in equivalent 2007 dollars.

The asymmetries go well beyond budgets and include imbalances in prestige and career advancement. The Secretary of Defense administers a vast bureaucracy of civilian appointees, generals, other military officers, and new recruits. The Pentagon’s military leaders have risen through the ranks of a meritocracy with very clear metrics for promotion. Conversely, the equivalent head of non-military assistance is the Administrator of AID. This Administrator is not a member of the cabinet and does not oversee an organization filled with dozens of political appointees and talented subordinates who have risen through a merit-based hierarchy equivalent to that of the military. Even the title “administrator” underscores the lack of prestige assigned to the job.

Но эти цитаты - далеко не самое вкусное в книжке. Я составил Цитатник Макфола на все случаи жизни, Незаменимое пособие для задавания Макфолу вопросов во время встреч Макфола с молодежью:

Каждые $10 миллионов долларов потраченные на продвижение демократии повышают уровень демократии по шкале Freedom House на четверь балла:

They [исследователи программ AID Steven Finkel, Anibal Perez-Linan и Mitchel Seligson] estimate that $10 million in democracy and governance spending will raise a country’s Freedom House score by a quarter of a point.

Чем больше тратить на НГО, тем их больше появляется:

Programs that support civil society and trade unions can trace a fairly straight causal arrow between funding and NGO proliferation.

Американская индустрия выборов - большая, высокоразвитая и жаждет экспортировать свой опыт:

American campaign industry is large, highly developed, and eager to export its expertise.

Особенно после того, как США стала мировой силой, другие страны стали готовы принять американское лидерство из-за искренней веры в американское обязательство "делать хорошо" миру:

Especially after the United States emerged as a world power, other countries were willing to accept American leadership because of a genuine belief in the American commitment to “doing good” in the world.

Среди развивающихся стран за последние 50 лет, нет никакой корреляции модернизацией и демократизацией:

In the developing world over the past 50 years, there is no correlation between modernization and democratization.

За последние 10 лет, экономическая модернизация в России подорвала, не продвинула, демократическое развитие:

Over the past 10 years, economic modernization in Russia has undermined, not promoted, democratic development.

Несмотря на то, что демократизаторы ни фига не понимают и у них ни фига не получается, в конце-концов что-то должно демократизироваться:

Despite the relatively few American successes in promoting democracy recently, our rather underdeveloped understanding for how democratization occurs, and the limited resources available for supporting democratic development abroad, this book still aims to make the case that the United States should promote democracy and that, under the right circumstances and with the right policies, the United States can promote democracy.

Вдохновленные риторикой Буша, демократические активисты в Египте, Иране, Белоруссии, Сирии, России и Азербайджане рискнули и бросили вызов своим режимам, считая, что Вашингтон придет на их защиту. Активистов ждал облом.

Inspired by Bush’s rhetoric, democratic activists in Egypt, Iran, Belarus, Syria, Russia, and Azerbaijan took chances and challenged their regimes, believing that Washington would come to their defense. They were let down.

Оказывается, Макфол не исключает, что США в особых случаях может помогать сбежать диктаторам:

In special circumstances, U.S. officials must be prepared to offer falling autocrats exit out of the country and safe haven to enjoy their retirement from politics. However unjust, safe passage out of the country for an autocratic ruler sometimes can be a necessary condition for peaceful democratic change.

Оказывается, Макфол не исключает (и не против), чтобы иранские муллы обменяли власть на деньги, как это сделала часть партноменклатуры при коллапсе СССР:

Greater contact between Iranian and American societies in turn would further undermine the regimes’ legitimacy, strengthen the independence of Iranian economic and political groups, and perhaps even compel some regime members to cash out and exchange their diminishing political power for enduring property rights.

Макфол сам, своими устами произносит "agents of the U.S. government" по отношению к получателям US AID. Дык почему же все возмущались, когда Путин захотел, чтобы получатели US AID зарегистрировались как агенты правительства США? Может Путин прочел Макфола и последовал его книге:

this form of direct assistance can make the recipients of AID assistance look like collaborators or agents of the U.S. government.

О скептицизме американцев по отношению к продвижению демократии в других странах:

"In 2002, a Pew Global Attitudes Survey revealed that 70 percent of Americans agreed that the “US should be promoting democracy around the world.” In a 2007 survey, only 23 percent of respondents believed the “US can effectively help other countries become democratic,” while 64 percent thought “democracy is something that countries only come to on their own.”

Об опасностях преждевременной выборной демократии: повышении рисков войн и терроризма

"Others in this camp contend that promoting democracy can trigger conflict between and within states. “Pushing countries too soon into competitive electoral politics,” Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder argue, “not only risks stoking war, sectarianism and terrorism, but it also makes the future consolidation of democracy more difficult.”

Когда-то раньше US AID занимался не продвижением демократии, а помощью в социальном и экономическом развитии:

for the first three decades of AID’s existence, its principal focus remained social and economic development, not democracy promotion.

"Ни в одной независимой и демократической стране с сравнительно свободной прессой никогда не было голода". А если был, то мы объявим ее автократией:

no substantial famine has ever occurred in any independent and democratic country with a relatively free press.

"Самым серьезным конкурентом демократии в прошлом веке и все еще сейчас был и остается модернизирующий автократ":

Thus the most serious competitor to democracy in the past century and still today is the modernizing autocrat.

Макфолу неприятно, что сначало "четыре дракона", а потом Китай на шару прорвались без демократизации:

In the 1960s and 1970s, authoritarian regimes in Asia’s tigers—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea—provided a capitalist model for advocates of growth under autocracy. Today, the Chinese economic miracle provides a serious alternative to the legitimacy and attractiveness of democracy.

Макфол признает, что агитаторы за демократию в прошлом немножко привирали про ее экономическую эффективность:

Proponents of democracy overpromise and ignore empirical reality when they claim that democracies always and everywhere outperform autocracies in developing economies

Макфол честно упоминает мнение оппонентов: сначала разбогатей, потом демократизируйся

get richer first, worry about democracy later. For decades, this idea dominated thinking about development assistance in Western aid agencies and international financial institutions.

Никакой связи между демократией и ростом, говорит Макфол:

Although some scholars have posited a positive relationship between democracy and growth, others have found a negative relationship, and a third school has found no relationship at all. In the aggregate, this last finding seems most robust.

В смысле экономического роста автократи разные - одни зайцы, другие улитки. А вот демократиии все дружные, идущие одним строем черепахи. (У Макфола опять проглядывает неприязнь к Китаю, который он не понимает, как демократизировать):

In the economic growth race in the developing world, autocracies are the hares and the snails, while democracies are the tortoises. On average, democracies have a slower rate of growth than the best autocratic performers but a much better rate of growth than most autocratic regimes.

Макфол приводит высказывание оппонента, что внедрение демократии в Африке привело к хаосу и коррупции:

In Africa, according to Fareed Zakaria, the introduction of democracy has produced “a degree of chaos and instability that has actually made corruption and lawlessness worse in many countries.

Демократии - не пацифисты, когда имеют дело с автократиями. А вот друг с другом демократии пацифисты. (Что есть автократия, и что есть демократия, выбирает Макфол разумеется)

Democracies are not pacifist regimes when dealing with autocracies. But democracies are peaceful when interacting with other democracies.

Макфол приводит высказывание оппонента, что в западных странах всякие свободы были введены за столетия до демократии:

As Fareed Zakaria, one of the most articulate proponents of this sequencing argument, rightly points out, “liberty came to the West centuries before democracy.

Макфол приводит высказывание оппонента, что до введения демократии в стране должно быть народное единство (надо же, прямо путинизм какой-то):

“National unity,” in Dankwart Rustow’s formulation, “must precede all other phases of democratization” and works best as a precondition for democracy “when national unity is accepted un-thinkingly.

Реалисты об опасностях продвижения демократии, которая может привести к торжеству анти-американистов и нестабильности:

Realists argue that democracy promotion can undermine allies, empower anti-American forces, and generate both domestic and international instability. By pushing for democratization, so the argument goes, the United States “might help set forces in motion that it cannot control and that threaten its vital interests.

Спасибо французам за военную интервенцию в США во время американское революции. Это помогло демократии:

Without French military intervention in the American Revolution (an instance of military intervention to promote democracy), the United States would not have become an independent country when it did.

Без нелиберального королевства Саудовское Аравии, у США не было бы достаточно доступной энергии, чтобы поддерживать наш стиль жизни:

Without the illiberal kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a trade partner today, the United States would not have enough affordable energy to support our current way of life.

Оккупация Севером Юга после гражданской войны может рассматриваться как первый случай использования Соединенными Штатами военной силы для изменения режима (regime change - как в Ираке) и построения нации (nation building - тоже, как в Ираке).

The North’s occupation of the South after the Civil War might be considered the first instance of the United States using military force to pursue democratic regime change and nation building.

О неудачах демократизаци на Филиппинах:

American leaders proclaimed the promotion of freedom a core objective of the American presence in the Philippines. The mission did not go well. In the Philippines, American forces fought a prolonged war against insurgents, resulting in the deaths of 220,000 Filipino soldiers and civilians and 4,000 American soldiers over 14 years.

О неспособности отличить борцов за независимость от борцов за Коммунизм во Вьетнаме:

The American inability to distinguish between anti-colonial movements struggling for independence and Soviet proxies struggling for world communist revolution also led to many strategic errors in fighting the Cold War, including most tragically in Vietnam.

Ах, как нехорошо получилось с бин Ладеном и Афганистаном! Мы его подерживали, а он!

The most detrimental error for American security, however, was Operation Cyclone, the program of covert U.S. support for the mujahadeen during the Soviet war in Afghanistan. These so-called freedom fighters were useful U.S. allies in driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan, but they were hardly Jeffersonian believers, as the world learned when they tried to govern Afghanistan in the early 1990s. On the contrary, their failure to build stable, accountable government helped to bring to power the Taliban, which in turn invited Al Qaeda to set up shop in Afghanistan. That alliance eventually yielded devastating consequences for American national security on September 11, 2001.

Озабоченность возвышением Китая:

Nonetheless, there is no question that managing China’s rise will remain a central concern of American presidents for the next century.

Макфолу нравится Россия в 1990-е:

the nature of the political system that emerged in Russia in the 1990s was a weak form of democracy. In the 1990s, radical political and economic change in Russia produced leaders, political forces, and economic interest groups that identified with and benefited from liberal ideas, specifically democratic and market practices at home and integration into Western institutions abroad. Russia’s new leaders also rejected communist and fascist ideologies, building instead economic institutions (including first and foremost, private property rights) and to a lesser extent political institutions designed to constrain illiberal, anti-democratic forces.

Если бы в 1990-е в России были бы коммунисты или фашисты, США не стремилось бы расширять НАТО и поостереглось бы бомбить Югославию:

Had Russia been ruled by a communist or fascist leader during the 1990s, the United States would have been less likely to pursue NATO enlargement or the bombing of Yugoslavia because of concerns about the potential for armed conflict with Russia.

Страна, организация или индивидуал может быть одновременно анти-американским и про-демократическим

A country, organization, or individual can be anti-American and pro-democracy at the same time.

Коллапс коммунизма вызвал головокружение от успехов у продвигателей демократии:

The collapse of communism ushered in a giddy era for democracy promoters.

Когда демократические правительства и НПО сами непрозрачны, им трудно проповедовать прозрачность другим:

It is hard for the democratic governments and Western NGOs to call for transparency in autocratic governments when they themselves do not operate transparently.

Типа "Мы, Американцы, стоим на Правильной Стороне Истории":

Americans—foreign policymakers and citizens alike—may gain some sense of satisfaction by seeing their country do the right thing, or stand on the right side of history.

Главная стратегическая мотивация для обретения ядерного оружия - удержать Америку от военной интервенции:

a central strategic motivation for obtaining a nuclear weapon is to deter American military intervention.

Макфолу оказывается не всегда нравится внесистемная оппозиция:

With more avenues open for peaceful political participation, organizations that practice terrorism would be forced to make strategic decisions about whether or not to pursue their political objectives in accordance with the democratic rules of the game or to remain extra-constitutional, anti-systemic movements.

Демократизация непривела к уменьшению террористических аттак:

In the short run, however, democratization has not reduced terrorist attacks either in the Middle East or against Western democracies.

Макфол признает, что правительство Саудовской Аравии непрямо финансировало Аль-Каеду:

The Saudi government never directly financed Al Qaeda, but Saudi charity organizations with close ties to the government, including charities headed by government officials, did provide direct and indirect support for Al Qaeda and like-minded political groups.

Ирак не стал демократией даже в 2007:

As of 2007, the Iraqi regime was not classified as a democracy.

В идеале - демократия только для демократов:

Ideally, parties are only allowed to participate in elections after they pledge allegiance to the democratic rules of the game and also recognize the state’s monopoly on the legitimate use of force.

Американские политики не должны поступаться принципами и продолжать проталкивать демократию по любому поводу:

The American president must continue to speak out in support of democracy and human rights. Shying away from the “d” word in favor of more euphemistic phrases like “good governance” or “human dignity” would send a terrible signal to the activists around the world fighting for human rights and democratic change. Certainly, the United States has to cooperate with illiberal and authoritarian regimes on a wide range of economic, security, and political issues. Americans need Saudi oil, Russian cooperation on reducing the world’s nuclear arsenals, and Chinese computer chips and textiles. In pursuing these transactions, however, American diplomats must not check their values at the door. Consistency also matters. The worst of all worlds is when one cabinet official gives a speech about democracy promotion as a U.S. priority and another senior official downplays its significance.

В Иране американским НГО неуютно:

In Iraq, many American democracy promotion organizations have refused to work in country, and those that do spend up to 40 percent of their budgets on security.

Детали американского финансирования политики в других странах:

In the Philippines and Chile, aid and technical assistance from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) helped to expose electoral fraud, and in Chile, to assist the opposition in running a successful “NO” campaign during the referendum.55 In South Africa, AID as well as NED, NDI, and other American NGOs provided support and solidarity to the opposition forces.

Макфол признает, что США играли роль в "Цветных Революциях" и пишет, какую именно:

The factors for success in these cases included (1) a semi-autocratic regime, (2) an unpopular incumbent; (3) a united and organized opposition; (4) an ability by the opposition to expose electoral fraud; (5) enough independent media to inform citizens about the falsified vote; (6) a political opposition capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of demonstrators to protest electoral fraud; and (7) divisions among the regime’s coercive forces.75 Of these seven factors, the United States played a role in only a few.

These state-to-state relationships helped to dissuade Kuchma and Shevardnadze from cracking down on their opposition movements and also facilitated the work of American non-governmental organizations, which worked with civil society and opposition groups inside both countries.

In the fall of 2003, numerous American envoys tried to convince President Shevardnadze to hold free and fair elections. When he did not, the Bush administration did not immediately denounce the election results, but gradually signaled support for the opposition until they seized power. In the run up to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, Bush administration officials also encouraged President Kuchma to hold free and fair elections, and by denying visas to prominent Ukrainian businessmen, signaled to the regime the consequences of a fraudulent vote. These threats did not prevent Kuchma from trying to steal the vote, but they may have helped to constrain the president and his entourage from using force against the demonstrators. Indirectly, American-supported media outlets’ reports on Kuchma’s involvement in the killing of Ukrainian journalist Georgiy Gongadze and the vast corruption of Shevardnadze’s Georgian government also helped to undermine the popularity and power of these leaders.

NDI and IRI played active roles in encouraging cooperation among the democratic groups in Serbia and Ukraine, though less so in Georgia. They did so by collecting and then sharing survey data, which underscored the electoral advantage of a single candidate. In both countries, this data pointed to the need to back particular candidates—Voijislav Kostunica in Serbia and Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine rather than the more charismatic opposition leaders in both countries at the time (Zoran Djinjic in Serbia and Yulia Timoshenko in Ukraine).

Чиста по зарплате выгоднее работать на НГО финансированное Западом, чем на местное российское:

The scale of the resources involved in grant-making also distorts the labor market in poor societies, making it more lucrative to work for a Western-funded NGO than to head a local NGO or government agency without external support.

Макфол жалуется, что американские советники разработали в куче развивающихся стран законы коммерции, но при этом забили на демократию и права человека:

American advisors have played central roles in revising commercial codes throughout the developing world, but with limited spillover to democracy and human rights.

Идеи Макфола про сеть гражданских специалистов по продвижению демократии:

The U.S. government also should establish a network of civilian democracy and state-building specialists, similar to the National Guard, who could be deployed to transitional settings. In addition, a special fund—a democracy dividend—should be set aside to provide rapid financial aid to those governments making the transition to democracy.

Что важнее - чистая вода или право голоса?

Who would argue that clean water is not more important to people in poor countries than the right to vote? Who would disagree that freedom from death in a combat zone is more valuable than the right to free assembly?

США должно помогать только хорошим мальчикам, которые учат уроки демократии:

To better integrate economic and political development aid, the United States needs to make economic assistance conditional upon a country making progress on governance reforms, including democratic reforms.

Солдаты не должны убивать один день и учить демократии на следующий - здраво:

Soldiers should not kill terrorists one day and teach Jeffersonian democracy the next.

Дипломаты не сегодня договариваться с правительсвом о военных базах, а завтра - финансировать оппозиционеров этом правительству. Тоже здраво:

Diplomats should not negotiate a basing agreement with a government one day and then turn around the next and approve funding for an opposition leader to that same government.

Макфолу не нравится, когда контракты на строительство гражданского общества получают коммерческие компании:

for-profit companies should not be allowed to bid to do civil society assistance work,

Независимые ученые так и не установили, помогает ли демократизация грантами демократии как таковой:

independent scholars have conducted remarkably few systematic analyses or comprehensive assessments of how U.S. foreign policy, including democracy assistance programs, has helped advance the development of democracy worldwide.

Гранты двойного назначения - русская культура и security:

To fight the decades-long battle against communism, the United States invested billions of dollars in education and intelligence. The U.S. government sponsored centers of Soviet studies, provided foreign-language scholarships in Russian and Eastern European languages, and offered dual-competency grants to get graduate students to acquire expertise both in security issues and in Russian culture.

Расширение NATO для демократии:

After the collapse of communism in Europe, the Clinton administration explicitly called for NATO enlargement as a mechanism for expanding the democratic community of states.

Obviously, the United States played no direct role in the creation or expansion of the EU, but it is hard to imagine the EU having succeeded without NATO and American military power on the continent beforehand.

ООН принимают в мире лучше, чем американские НГО:

In many parts of the world today, the U.N. has a better brand name than American election-monitoring NGOs. Most Americans (68 percent) also support the idea of promoting democracy “by working through the UN because such efforts will be more legitimate.”

А вот Мировой Банк отлынивает:

Consequently, the World Bank and other development banks must devote a greater fraction of their resources to programs that help to build state institutions, including democratic institutions. As the largest shareholder in the World Bank, the United States must exercise its “property rights” to press for this reorientation. A first signal of credible commitment to the effort would be the introduction of the word “democracy” into the bank’s lexicon.

Хватит открыто маркировать US AID как US AID!

The counterproductive practice of requiring the AID label to appear on AID-funded projects must end.

Макфол по своему разумению классифицирует правительства на "плохие" и "хорошие":

international NGOs, especially in the human rights field, have built informal networks with local NGOs to pressure bad governments into performing better

Профессиональные НГО из Сербии хотят экспортировать свой опыт демократизации:

Some have even spawned professional NGOs such as the Centre for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) in Serbia, which is dedicated to exporting successful ideas and methods for democratic change.

Противные диктаторы называют экспортеров демократии нелегитимными, нелегальными и имперскими:

While few of these dictators would argue against democracy as a value or system of government, they do rail against exporters of democracy as illegitimate, illegal, and imperial.

panchul