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Should peacekeeping troops under the aegis of CSTO (ODKB) be brought to Ukraine? (IA REX) // The Center of Strategic Conjuncture

3 июня 2014

http://conjuncture.ru/iarex-ru-07-05-2014-eng/

The article below is the translation from "IA REX" news agency, translation was made by Svarog, the expert of the Center of Strategic Conjuncture.

08_08_08_war_97_Aug22_woman_lavash_Georgian_village_Igoeti_AP_Sergey_Gritz

PHOTO: RF peacekeepers on "War 08.08.08" (agression of Georgia to the Republic of South Ossetia at midnight on August 7th to the 8th 2008). Georgian villagers of the Igoeti village in the South Ossetia giving lavash (Caucasian bread) to a Russian peacekeeper, 22 August 2008, (c) AP, Sergey Gritz.

Original article:

Nuzhno li vvodit na Ukrainu mirotvorcheskie sily pod flagom ODKB // ИА REX. 07.05.2014.

Ivashov_Leonid_Grigoryevich_2014_04_27_Baikonur_Stepanyan_Arayik_sm

PHOTO: Colonel-General Leonid Grigoryevich IVASHOV (right), the Head of the Moscow-based Academy of Geopolitical Affairs; Arayik Oganesovich STEPANYAN (left), the Secretary of Academy of Geopolitical Affairs, at the Russian cosmodrome Baikonur, 27 April 2014. On the International Conference "Eurasian Integration: Potential for Development", 26-27 April 2014, the city of Baikonur, the Republic of Kazakhstan. Copyright: the Center of Strategic Conjuncture, Alexander Sobyanin.

Ivashov: Exclusive interview on the situation in Ukraine // RT Russian. 28.04.2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv65KI1nBA8

Elena Milinchich in the programme "Exclusive opinion". Head of the Moscow-based Academy of Geopolitical Affairs Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov on the EU and PACE sanctions, interests of the West in Ukraine.

SHOULD PEACEKEEPING TROOPS UNDER THE AEGIS OF CSTO (ODKB) BE BROUGHT TO UKRAINE?  Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov's opinion, expert commentaries: Alexander Sobyanin, Andrey Davydov, Evgeny Kashtanov, German Yanushevsky, Alexander Khurshudov // IA REX. 07.05.2014.

Leonid Ivashov, the President of the Academy of Geopolitical Affairs asserts that peacekeeping troops under the aegis of CSTO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS or other international organization should be brought to Ukraine.

Leonid IVASHOV, the President of the Academy of Geo-Political Problems analyzes a hypothetical scenario of a military stand-off between Russian peacemakers and the Bandera radicals for the "Komsomolskaya pravda" newspaper. Leonid Ivashov asserts: "I assert that peacekeeping troops under the aegis of CSTO, SCO, BRICS or other international organization should be brought to Ukraine, as it was done in Tajikistan. The core of the troops can be made by the Russian troops. It is clear that our initiative is not going to be supported by either UN Security Council or OSCE. But in practice our troops in both Tajikistan and Abkhazia ended up receiving the status of international. And our actions came to be considered successful. Creating peacekeeping troops is our right. At the least the observers with international status could be brought and then the peacekeeping checkpoints which would separate the conflicting sides could be established. Could it lead to a war between Ukraine and Russia? If we enter the territory of Ukraine as a single country we are going to run into a conflict with Kiev. This conflict has already been paid for by the West. They expect a collision of the Russian and Ukrainian troops. It is then that NATO will enter to “establish peace”. This can’t be allowed to happen".

EXPERT COMMENTARIES

Alexander Dmitrievich SOBYANIN, the Head of the service for strategic planning of the Association for Trans-border Cooperation (Russia), the member of the Expert council of the Center of Strategic Conjuncture.

I had many chances to write on the subject of bringing CSTO troops in a country in the Central Asia or Caucasus in the context of possible military base of the Russian Federation or CSTO in Osh, a town in the southern Kirghizia. That is why I would like to give a more extensive commentary on the position of my compatriot, the colonel-general Leonid Georgievich Ivashov (he was born in the Osh oblast), whom I respect highly and to whose position, and he is aware of that, I look up to in the politics. If we were to fall prey to the diplomats’ game, it would be a very good idea. But, this is not what we want, and what we want is to stop the continuation of the Nazi butchery in Odessa that has been prepared directly and in the open. Therefore,

Position of the Russian Federation for bringing a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine to put the end to the punitive operations by Nazi paramilitary groups (project of 05.05.2014)

1. The idea of the Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov of sending peacekeeping troops contingent to Ukraine without waiting for the military and law enforcement structures to turn fully Nazi, is absolutely correct. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service can’t independently stop the Nazi violence since they were participating in facilitating the safe unchallenged passage of Nazi for their punitive operations in Odessa, in Donetsk oblast cities of Andreevka, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Mariupol. The fact of a larger number of Nazi military organizations becoming part of the acting personnel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine makes it impossible to draw a dividing line between Nazi and the law-enforcement structures of Ukraine. The landing of minor contingent of USA or NATO in the ports of Bolshaya Odessa or Nikolayev would bring about the conflict going international and rising issues of security on a totally different scale much larger than anti-Nazi peace-keeping operation.

2. It is a categorical statement that a peacekeeping operation should not be carried out under the aegis of CSTO, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or any other international organization, including UN because the time will be lost and innocent defenseless people will continue to be murdered. The doubting countries of CSTO may dilute the value of the decision making the peacekeeping operation useless.

3. Russia may announce about her decision to send a peacekeeping contingent for the protection of the peaceful citizens of Ukraine from running amok Nazi and address the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Southern Ossetia, the Republic of Abkhazia, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, and separately from those to the Peoples’ Republic of China to support the anti-Nazi position of Russia by participating in the peacekeeping operation in Ukraine. The countries of CSTO should take an independent decision on what is more important to them: the approval of USA and the “world community” and allowing the Nazi butchery in Ukraine or sharing the responsibility to restore peace and order even if it necessarily brings worsening relations with USA and Europe. For China it will mean that Russia will take up similar obligations in the similar tasks of China. No country should be forced to support Russia but it must be made clear that in Russia allowing the Nazi outrage in Ukraine whatever excuses are made will be perceived as misplaced political scheming and discarding the Eurasian political burden of providing the peace and security on the Eurasian space.

4. The Navy of Russia should unilaterally start planned exercising with military shooting to the West of the Crimean Federal Okrug of the Russian Federation. All the Black Sea states and the fleets of distant states, whose Navy ships are currently in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, must be duly notified to avoid the sea area west of Crimea for the duration of the exercises. The planned exercise of the ally states of Russia and Belarus in Polesye, Belarus, must have peacemaking scenarios of using troops to protect civilians and eliminating punitive Nazi paramilitary groups. The troops participating in the exercises must be ready to help the peacemaking operation of Russia and her allies.

5. For the duration of the peacekeeping operation only, in order to prevent the violence spreading to other countries, Russia and her allies will pronounce closing the air space above the territory of Ukraine and PMR and address UN (only one international organization) requesting UN to stop other countries ‘ attempts of armed support to the Nazi regime of Ukraine.

6. Russia is to initiate creating International Anti-Nazi Tribunal to investigate the crimes of the Ukrainian Nazi in Ukraine in the period from February to May 2014. In case of the world’s community’s not willing to participate in investigating the Nazi crimes, Russia and her allies shall initiate creating Eurasian Anti-Nazi Tribunal to investigate the crimes of the Ukrainian Nazi in Ukraine in the period from February to May 2014.

7. All the military personnel of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine, the officers of the Ministry of Interior Affairs of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine who refuse to follow the orders of the criminal Nazi regime of Maidan and join the self-proclaimed peoples’ republics or just leave the active service, Russia guarantees keeping their rank, the years of service and opportunity to assume the corresponding positions in the military and law enforcement structures. The situation in Crimea shows that all the promises made by Russia to the military and law enforcement cadres in Crimea have been kept without exception.

No political, ideological stands and positions can be a ground for the ideology of Nazism, the most human-hating ideology of the planet, to return to our history in 2014. It is a firm position of the Russian Federation, in respect of which there can’t be any compromises in terms of allowing Nazism to come back in any degree.

Andrey DAVYDOV, journalist

In my opinion, including CSTO would make sense only if NATO expresses willingness to or actually enters the territory of Ukraine (or it had to be done right after deposing Yanukovich). Concerning Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and, even more, BRICS, it should be said that apart from its being practically impossible to carry out, even if it were possible the peacekeepers would only contribute to the stalemate in Ukraine situation. We may end up experiencing a critical pressure on Russia’s budget supporting 2-3 seceding regions (plus those where the situation will be balanced). And the junta will get the time to feed the growing generation with hatred to Russia and neo-Nazi ideology. Gradually, the Nazi regime will re-arm themselves following Saakashvili Georgia example.( And we can’t hope that impoverished population under the junta’s authority will rebel: the majority will be too brain-washed or intimidated to raise their heads). And then, after some time, we will have a real heavy war. As experience of the South Ossetia showed, the status of peacekeeper does not save Russian soldiers from being attacked by one of the conflicting sides. So, I am afraid it is not a solution.

Where is the solution, then? In helping the south-east by all possible means and not only through diplomacy and not only providing information. To try to wait for the results of the referendum (the volunteers are ceertainly able to drive away the “national guards” or Nazi guards, as they are referred to, creating the necessary calmer atmosphere, conducive to expressing their will). And here the west will go into hysterics and Washington might even perhaps succeed in convincing Europeans to implement the economic sanctions against Russia. And then, only a small excuse, and it will not take long to find one, will be needed for a direct military operation. After losing all its trump cards the West will be left hiccupping with amazement.

A more “peaceful” scenario (without harsh sanctions imposed by the West but with recognition of Poroshenko elected in the mock elections as a Ukraine president ) might be that in the nearest future the troops of the liberated South-East will launch a campaign against Kiev. Fascism can’t be allowed to take roots, we can’t allow oceans of blood.

There is also an option that the escalation is going to start right now. There are some signs that the West’s hysteria has already started which means that the junta will use all the resources to launch a desperate attack. And, though of course, it depends on circumstances, the South-East must stand that blow. If they can stand it, the road to Kiev will open, by itself.

Evgeny KASHTANOV, political scientist

I believe, we should stick to the option of bringing the Russian troops in the capacity of peacekeeping troops under the aegis of CSTO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization,BRIKS or other international organization and have it organized and carried out at the earliest. And here, considering all the previous experience of employing “polite people” I consider the following recommendations as appropriate.

Since in course of the punitive expedition to the cities in the east of Ukraine, the illegitimate authorities started using the property of the armed forces of Ukraine and of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, including military equipment and arms that can lead to huge casualties among the civilians and civil war, it is suggested that in order to prevent that, the legitimate and still acting president of Ukraine V.F.Yanukovich take the following measures within his powers. He should appoint the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and the Head of the Army Headquarters from the superior officers of the united headquarters of the army of the south-east Ukraine. He should order all the units of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine to come under the legitimate command of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine after leaving serving under command of illegitimate persons. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine should be ordered to receive the military property of the Ukraine’s armed forces now being on the territory of the republic of Crimea. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine should be appointed from those officers of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, who today actively protect the rights of the citizens of Ukraine from radicals and nationalists. All the units of the Ministry of interior Affairs of Ukraine should be ordered to come under the legitimate command of the Minister of Internal Affairs after leaving serving under command of illegitimate persons. The President should pronounce “the Right Sector”, “Batkovshina” and “National guards” and other terrorist organizations outlaws and ban out their activities on the territory of Ukraine.

German Vladimirovich YANUSHEVSKY, a social scientist and systems analyst

The Americans conduct, mostly, and, moreover, by our side, secret operations. Like in Venezuela and other South America. And they are pretty successful, they reach their purposes. We have experienced a success in Crimea. Today, apart from American mercenaries, there are Polish, German, Georgian, and, I am certain, mercenaries from a number of other countries, who fight on Kiev’s side. and right now there are about 2000 volunteers from Crimea who are on their way to Luganshina (the first destination). Of course, they hold Ukrainian passports. To facilitate their passage the volunteers took one border check point. The border guards must have been sent home. Kadyrov with his battalion of cutthroats are waiting . “We don’t take righties prisoners”. Why should secret successful job people do, be revealed, minimising its effect? As volunteers our troops can enter from any region of the Russian Federation. The door is open; come in, even if you drive Zhirinovsky’s “Tiger”, or a tank. I remember I myself entered Ukraine in the middle of 90s driving down the road on which there was a simple border check point on our side, and on Ukrainian side, there was nothing. I entered some district center town directly. Why troops? Why do we need obstructions? I understand the fighting spirit of the general Ivashov. But we have to consider the current political situation, not only military. There are thousands, not less, of Americans in Kiev but since we don’t hear them, it is silence around Obama, the State Department and CIA. What stops us from learning and adopting the positive and effective American experience? And maybe, the parity of the advisers and consultants should be figured out openly?

Alexander Grigoryevich Khurshudov, an expert on oil and gas politics, Ph.D. in engineering

No, the scenario of having the peacekeeping troops under the aegis of CSTO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS or any other international organization enter Ukraine will not work. First, blood will be spilt, second, in a day NATO troops will enter Ukraine from the West.

Russian Federation: Bringing of the CSTO (ODKB) peacekeeping troops to Ukraine (17:20, 08.05.2014) // ИА Glavcom. 08.05.2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjBNAq1v-Y0

Also on this theme:

[***] 3 May 2014 - day of the formal beginning of the Ukrainian-Russian war // IA REX. 03.05.2014.

[***] NATO Fact Sheet: Russia’s accusations — setting the record straight // Technopolis zavtra (Kramatorsk). 02.05.2014.

[***] Alexander SOBYANIN: "USA are projecting Maidans in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan. But they will not be successful" // Obschestvenniy rating. № 14 (650). 01.05.2014.

[***] NATO officers guesting Ukrainian rebels // Ezhednevniy zhurnal. 29.04.2014.

[***] Discussing of trading Ukrainian arms to Russia - just a part of the information war. Interview of Ivan Konovalov, the director of the Center of Strategic Conjuncture // Radio "Vesti FM". 28.04.2014.

[***] The Federative Republic of Novorossiya. And also Ukrainian and Carpatian Federations. Lt.-Col. Ralph Peters: "Whatever we do, Putin wins again" // IA REX. 21.04.2014.

[***] Ivan Konovalov, the director of the Center of Strategic Conjuncture: Ukrainian army became the "paper" army. Airport of Kramatorsk is the for classic airmobile operation // Radio "Vesti FM". 16.04.2014.

[***] The Federative Republic of Novorossiya. On the situation and further tasks. Vladimir Konstantinovich Zykov, the expert of the Center of Strategic Conjuncture // Technopolis zavtra (Kramatorsk). 16.04.2014.

[***] Russia Military Options Against Ukraine. Map and Briefing by and Michael Clarke. The Military Ticks Up while the Clock Ticks Down. Traitor Igor Sutyagin from Royal United Services Institute is drawing four Military Scenarios of RF troops attack on Ukraine // Technopolis zavtra (Kramatorsk). 07.04.2014.

[***] New Containment of Russia (Stratfor). From Estonia to Azerbaijan: American Strategy After Ukraine // Technopolis zavtra (Kramatorsk). 28.03.2014.

[***] Ukrainian razlom (break-up): Compulsion of Europe for supporting Maidan and transit of hydrocarbons // REGNUM News Agency. 18.03.2014.

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